Research

Working Papers

Lost in Aggregation: The local environmental and welfare effects of large industrial shutdowns

Abstract

This paper investigates how closures of large industrial facilities affect surrounding communities. By exploiting quasi-random variation in the timing of facility shutdowns in Germany, I analyze the neighborhood-level effects of industrial closures using data at the 1km x 1km grid cell level. Shutdowns of industrial sites lead to significant improvements in environmental amenities as represented by air quality. The air quality gains from industrial closures are concentrated in low-income neighborhoods and thus contribute to narrowing the observed PM2.5 exposure gap between the most deprived and more affluent neighborhoods. These environmental benefits, however, do not capitalize into increasing housing prices. Instead, housing values fall by up to 5% following facility shutdowns – a result that contrasts with existing evidence for the US context. Neighborhoods affected by industrial closures also experience substantial local downturns with average household income dropping by 4% in the most affected neighborhoods. The resulting total annual income loss attributable to facility shutdowns amounts to €0.7 - €1.9 billion. Using a simplified model of neighborhood choice, I further show that neighborhoods surrounding a closed industrial site become less amenable over time.

  • Conference & Seminar Presentations: Inequality and the Environment Symposium (Sciences Po Paris), Harvard Graduate Student Workshop in Environmental Economics (Harvard Kennedy School), Parisian PhD Seminar on Environmental Economics (CIRED, Paris), Applied Economics Lunch Seminar (Paris School of Economics), ENS Lyon Junior Workshop, FSR Annual Climate Conference (EUI, Florence), 2025 AUROE Workshop (ZEW Mannheim), 18th RGS Doctoral Conference (TU Dortmund)

Global Income Inequality by 2050: Convergence, Redistribution, and Climate Change (with L. Chancel, A. Gethin and C. Mohren)

Abstract

This article investigates how national income convergence, government redistribution, and climate change will shape the global distribution of income until 2050. Despite ongoing convergence in national income, the global bottom 50% post-tax income share only marginally rises from 10% to 12% under “business-as-usual”, while the top 1% share remains constant. Yet, modest national-level redistribution policies can raise the global bottom 50% share to up to 19%. Policies involving redistribution of pre-tax income are particularly effective in reducing global inequality. Climate change is set to exacerbate inequalities, potentially offsetting all convergence effects since 1980.

Published Work

Peer-reviewed

Climate change and the global distribution of wealth (with L. Chancel, C. Mohren and G. Semienuk) Nature Climate Change (2025)

Policy Work

Climate Inequality Report 2023: Fair taxes for a sustainable future in the global south (with L. Chancel and T. Voituriez)

The potential of wealth taxation to address the triple climate inequality crisis (with L. Chancel and T. Voituriez) Nature Climate Change 14, 5–7 (2024).